Harare's Office Market Divide: Suburban Boom Contrasts CBD Decline

Harare’s property market is undergoing a significant transformation, with suburban areas gaining prominence while the Central Business District (CBD) faces increasing challenges. This shift is reshaping the city’s real estate dynamics across office, retail, residential, and industrial sectors.

Office Market Trends

The real estate market is undergoing a shift, as businesses reevaluate their office space needs. While CBD's are experiencing a degree of decline in office space demand, resulting in higher vacancy rates, this presents an opportunity for businesses to secure more affordable workspace.

Many corporations are instead opting to relocate to suburban areas, citing factors such as improved access, better infrastructure, and more favorable operational costs. This suburban migration has led to higher occupancy rates and rental prices in these outlying markets, ranging from $12 to $15 per square meter, compared to $6 to $10 per square meter in the CBDs.

As businesses adapt to evolving workplace trends, the real estate landscape continues to evolve, offering both challenges and opportunities for companies and investors alike.

The fluidity of the market underscores the importance of adaptability and forward-thinking in corporate real estate strategies. By thoughtfully evaluating all available options, organizations can position themselves for long-term success amidst the changing dynamics of the commercial property sector.

Retail Sector Resilience

Despite economic challenges, the retail sector demonstrates resilience. Occupancy rates in malls and newly constructed suburban shopping centers exceed 80%, with demand primarily driven by informal traders. In response to this trend, landlords are subdividing spaces into smaller units, typically ranging from 9 to 50 square meters.

This adaptation has resulted in a significant increase in rental rates for smaller shops, which have doubled from US$20 in 2022 to US$40 per square meter by the end of Q4 2023. However, the pace of new retail developments remains slow, with only a few projects, such as the Big Poppers Shopping Mall, slated for completion by 2025.

Residential Market Dynamics

The residential market is experiencing a dichotomy between luxury and affordable housing segments. The influx of expatriates has fuelled demand for prime properties, driving up rents for high-end apartments. For instance, rents for four-bedroom apartments have increased by 10% since early 2022, reaching US$3,500 in 2024.

Simultaneously, the government and private developers are focusing on affordable housing solutions to address growing demand, particularly in high-density suburbs and satellite towns. This dual approach aims to cater to diverse housing needs across different income brackets.

There is a rising demand for Grade A warehousing, reflecting the robust import activity, which totalled US$9.2 billion in 2023.

Rental rates for warehouses have remained relatively stable over the past year, with smaller warehouses commanding around US$5 per square metre and larger facilities at US$1.50 per square metre. This stability in rates, despite the challenges, indicates a resilient industrial sector adapting to current economic conditions.

Market Outlook

Harare’s property market is clearly delineated between thriving suburban areas and a struggling CBD. As this transformation continues, key trends to monitor include:

• Ongoing development of suburban office spaces
• Adaptation of retail environments to accommodate informal traders
• Increased focus on affordable housing solutions
• Potential growth in the industrial sector, particularly in Grade A warehousing.

The evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in Harare’s property market. Investors, developers, and policymakers will need to adapt strategies to capitalise on emerging trends while addressing the revitalisation of the CBD.

As Harare’s property scene continues to evolve, it reflects broader economic and social changes in Zimbabwe’s capital. The city’s ability to balance suburban growth with urban renewal will be crucial in shaping its future development and economic prosperity.